I


WAR PLANS


A. A Brief Synopsis of the Events Leading to War
Tensions between Austria–Hungary and her small Balkan neighbor to the south, Serbia, were very high as the summer of 1914 approached. Austria’s 1908 annexation of Bosnia – a Habsburg province containing many ethnic Serbs – had outraged Serbia, which had wanted Bosnia for herself. This spurred certain Pan-Serb groups (such as the “Black Hand”) to escalate (1) their anti-Austrian propaganda and (2) their efforts to detach Bosnia from the Habsburg Empire so as to facilitate the unification of all Serbs; the Serbian government generally (albeit quietly) condoned these activities. On June 28, 1914, the heir to the Habsburg throne, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, and his wife, Sophie, were shot and killed in the Bosnian city of Sarajevo. The gunman was Gavrilo Princip, who was connected to the Black Hand. Almost immediately, Vienna suspected that Serbian elements were behind the murders.
Although still one of Europe’s Great Powers (on paper at least), Austria–Hungary had many issues. For starters, the Empire consisted of two practically independent states, Austria and Hungary. The two shared a common monarchy, foreign ministry, and army, but in virtually all other areas they governed themselves; each, for instance, had its own prime minister and parliament. Hungary was fiercely protective of her rights and interests, even establishing her own industries so she could remain as economically independent from Austria as possible. Indeed, the Empire never reached her full economic potential because the two states failed to sufficiently integrate their respective economies and resources. Both states agreed, of course, on the need to preserve Austrian and Hungarian control of the Empire. But they remained divided on many other things, and there was frequent tension between them; Franz Ferdinand, for one, could not stand the Hungarians. Also problematic was that the Empire was comprised solely of minorities. Not even the ruling Austrians and Hungarians constituted a preponderance of the population of their respective states. Austrians (of German origin) represented merely one-third of Austria’s total population; the rest of Austria consisted mostly of Ruthenes, Poles, Czechs, Slovenes, and Italians. The figure was somewhat higher for the Hungarians, but they still represented only about 40 percent of Hungary’s population. Many of the Habsburg realm’s non-Austrian and non-Hungarian minorities were at least tepidly loyal to the Empire as a whole and to the octogenarian Emperor Franz Josef I in particular. They were not openly rebelling against the Empire. However, they did want more autonomy. And they were irritated at being ruled by two nationalities that were themselves minorities in their own states. With so many ethnic groups, there were fears in Vienna that some of them would eventually revolt against the Empire and Austro-Hungarian domination. This concern was particularly acute with respect to the Serb population in Bosnia. In short, the Empire’s delicate ethnic and political framework restricted her ability to become a real economic and military power. The Empire was not as strong as she once was, and many in Vienna wondered how much longer she could survive. Others in Europe also questioned her staying power. Just as troublesome for Austria were her strained relations not only with Serbia but also with Russia, Serbia’s ally and fellow Slav state. Vienna believed that Russia (1) endorsed much of the Pan-Serb agitation against Austria and (2) was determined to establish her preeminence in the Balkans. Even Vienna’s relations with its Italian and Romanian allies had deteriorated somewhat. Italy desired the Habsburg-controlled areas of Trieste (an Adriatic port city) and the Trentino, both of which contained predominantly Italian populations. Romania pined for Transylvania, which was part of Hungary and contained many ethnic Romanians. With Germany as Austria’s only true friend, and in light of the Empire’s internal fragility and the apparent external threats she faced, Habsburg officials feared the future. Like Austria, Germany felt isolated – even a little paranoid. Her relations with France had long been difficult, and those with Russia and England had worsened over the previous 15 years. France and Russia, meanwhile, were allies and they both (especially France) had good relations with England, so much so that the three countries were collectively labeled the “Triple Entente.” Berlin saw the Entente as a hostile faction determined to encircle and weaken Germany. The fact that the Entente was primarily defensive in nature and had been created largely in response to Germany’s aggressive diplomatic behavior since 1900 mattered little. It only mattered that Germany felt threatened. And with no one else to turn to, she held firm to her alliance with Austria.
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